First, most people in this country typically choose the Democratic nominee for president over the Republican nominee time and time again. With the sole exception of 2004, in every presidential election since 1992, the Democratic nominee has won the popular vote (Biden bested Donald Trump by 7m votes in 2020).
Second, although far too many in the media proceed from the premise that large swaths of the electorate are up for grabs each election cycle and susceptible to switching their political allegiances from one party to the other, the actual data starkly contradicts that belief.
Lastly, a reality that historians will certainly puzzle over in future years when they try to understand why Biden was forced out less than three and a half months before election day is that the economy is actually going like gangbusters. Fifteen million jobs have been created under the Biden administration and the stock market is at an all-time high, swelling 401k retirement coffers by an average of $10,000 according to Fidelity investments.
If, in fact, support for Democrats among people of color is the principal problem, then putting Harris at the top of the ticket is a master stroke. The enthusiasm for electing the first woman of color as president will likely be a thunderclap across the country that consolidates the support of voters of color, and, equally important, motivates them to turn out in large numbers at the polls, much as they did for Barack Obama in 2008.
All of this adds up to the likelihood that the 47th president of the United States will be Kamala Devi Harris.
